How I think the stablecoin meta might play out over the next 1-2 years 👇
There are 400+ stablecoins 😮 already deployed, with total market cap nearing $300B. But USDT (~59% per @DefiLlama) and USDC (~25%) remain dominant
But 🦇 vampire attacks in crypto are common & can be very successful
- DEX: @SushiSwap @Uniswap
- NFTs: @opensea @blur_io @MagicEden
- Memecoin launchpads: @pumpdopefun @bonk_fun
- Perps: @HyperliquidX @Aster_DEX @Lighter_xyz
esp when tech & regulatory are unlocked 🔓
With the passage of the GENIUS Act, I expect to see hundreds 💥 of stablecoins launched in the next 1-2 years.
In fact, most stablecoin data sets are out of date and don't capture all the new stablecoins that have just been launched in the last few months. 😱
Comparing stablecoins to other crypto primitives (NFTs, memecoins) 🕵️♀️ can give us a sense of what might happen 🔮:
For each vertical, post-vampire attacks, we saw:
1) commoditization of core infra 🏗️
2) a race to the bottom 🏃 for fees (or dumping of fees into buybacks)
3) lots of M&A and vertical expansion of companies 💸 (e.g. ME & OS buying mobile apps, Pump launching PumpSwap)
I believe stablecoin issuance will eventually be commoditized 🏭 - just like NFT marketplaces or memecoin launchpads.
Issuance alone isn’t enough, even with big brands - GTM is crucial b/c we’ll see many stablecoins with similar positioning (e.g. get x% yield 👨🌾)
Having a good track record of go to market will also make a big difference to future customers. If someone can vampire ⚰️ attack USDC/USDT effectively, IMO people will flock 🏃♀️ to them.
What makes a good GTM strategy? 🤔 We can reference:
1) past token launches (successful and unsuccessful, stablecoin or not - stablecoins are just another type of token IMO) &
2) the USDH pitches
Roughly -
1) Centralized exchange listings - to give legitimacy & allow more people to transact off-chain 📈
2) Market makers - to ensure deep liquidity 🌊 and price stability for on-chain use cases
3) Utility 🛠️ - Where does the yield come from? Any other use cases?
4) Public dashboard 📊 - to allow people to track supply/TVL trajectory in a transparent, fair way ⚖️ (and drive hype on X)
5) KOLs/whales 🐳 - to generate awareness (e.g. post stuff like “just swapped $1M in this pool & it has lower slippage than USDC, bullish”)
IMO you want to drive on-chain adoption initially as crypto native users are more likely to be early adopters of a new token.
Unless the developer is launching the stablecoin purely for use in their own fully contained product ecosystem and targeting only existing users.
I'm sure there are more and other creative playbooks to be made for stablecoin GTM. My guess 🤔 is that literally 100s 🤼 launch in the next 1-2 years but only 2 or 3 break out to have meaningful TVL.
Excited to follow along and see!! 😁
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