$BTC.D and alt season, fundamental viewpoint Why waiting for QE/QT changes is consistently not smart This was my most requested post, so here an update as promised. You know my stance on what is going to happen to altcoins, both for the low timeframes (rejection from 64.4%, still holding strong), and why I believe they will go up over the next months too (high timeframe view), and thus why their prices will be a lot higher by the end of this year/the latest Q1 2026. I have given a full technical breakdown and my focus will always be data and charts, but wanted to give a short fundamental viewpoint as they can't be neglected and can have some use. Not as a primary source / interpreting fundamentals are murky and interpretation is often hindsight driven. Hindsight as in, after the move has happened, words (of in this case Jerome Powell for example) are often cherry picked to explain the move, indeed after it happened, so, there is no use in that aside from some influencers sounding smart. With that in mind, I am trying to give a non-hindsight perspective, because indeed, the fundamental/high timeframe downside move of $BTC.D has not taken place yet, so by definition, this is not hindsight talk, this is a prediction as to why we could expect a shift from a fundamental viewpoint, supporting the main, technical and data driven thesis. Let's get to it. The Fed and $BTC.D Historically, the way The Federal Reserve has had an impact on $BTC.D is through their balance sheet (Ticker "WALCL" on TradingView). When their balance sheet increases/they buy assets, the market is in froth mode, vice versa when they sell. In technical terms, called QE and QT respectively. That's nothing new, and commonly known. What is lesser known is how the shift happens in live time. As mentioned, fundamental news is murky and hard to interpret, therefore by most analysts done in hindsight and in hindsight only to seem smart. Fundamental interpretations are also often cherry picked or with a lack of data, and in terms of the Fed's Balance sheet and QE/QT transition and its effect on crypto, only three data points exist so far, which is on the absolute border of being a low sample size to risk your money upon reliably, let alone build an entire thesis upon, as any decent scientist would tell you. Hence again, why I look at the charts primarily, and only use this as a supporting/combatting thesis, nonetheless interesting. Regardless, the FED does announce somewhat clearly when they shift from QE to QT a few months ahead of the event, as they clearly did: ✅June 2017: announcement of QT start in Oct 2017 ✅Jan 2022: announcement of QT start May 2022 Those announcements were clear and the market has responded with a $BTC.D bottom as a natural consequence. When it comes to the change from QT to QE, the one we are all waiting for, you'll sadly be disappointed because the Fed wasn't really clear on that change at the time (hindsight aside, please), first announced on March 2019, where they stated that the QT will "slow down" in April 2019, and "stop" in October 2019. QT did stop in October 2019 but they didn't say they would aggressively start QE (of course not... logically, why would they be clear about it). And now, in March 2025, we have received a similar exact announcement, that QT will "slow" in April 2025, yet they didn't say it will stop or when (again why would they be clear about it). So while the world is waiting for a clear answer, we likely won't get it and the charts will play out as they are deemed to play out, and in hindsight (say the end of the year), the macro analysts will have seen it all coming. So the million dollar question, are the FOMC announcements tradeable? Let's look at the numbers. Case 1: In June, QT was clearly announced, since then, the world knew QT would start in October. $ETH then was at about $200, $300 at the time of starting QT, and many altcoins have not pumped by then, as the $BTC.D drop was mostly driven by $ETH. After the change, the announcement, $ETH still went to $1000. So you likely missed the move on many altcoins "alt season" as we know it, if you sold on the announcement or on the time of the event taking place. Case 2: QT was announced in January 2022, yet by that time, $ETH had already dropped 50%, many altcoins dropped over 70%. And then on the late consolidation post announcement, many lower cap altcoins still put in all time highs. So this time, peak froth happened after the announcement. Again hard to know the exact time to sell, and this time, you would have been late. The Fed listeners were "right" ... but they likely lost money. Case 3: The vague announcement of QT "slowing and stopping", took place in March 2019, so if you bought alts then, you still had to wait for 9 months of drawdown before getting your alt season, despite the fact that $BTC.D topped. And technically, it didn't top, it was swept 16 months later. So, using this data to trade is not really practical for the non-broken-clock-traders/investors out there. The only traders that had some success are the $ETHBTC maxi's (the people who mostly hold $BTC or $ETH aside from stables and swap them against each other). But even then, if they listened to the change from QT to QE in 2019, they swapped their $BTC for $ETH, then they still had to wait 16 months staying underwater up to a 60% drawdown, unacceptable and avoidable through the usage of charts. Current thesis So what does that mean for today? The answer is as vague and unactionable as the words of Jerome Powell himself, but there is a conclusion to be drawn as there always is out of any data set, even if the data is bad (then, the conclusion simply is: "there is a lot of noise"). So I'll simply leave it with the fact that we had a long period of QT, and now, there have been vague announcements of it slowing down. So that probably means on the high timeframes, there is a shift to come on $BTC.D, granted, we can even rely on this correlation (only 3 data points large = NOT a lot) in the first place. And if we can rely on that correlation, it's going to be with a timing of more than one month off, not actionable in any way shape or form unless you get your scuba gear ready. We know a shift is coming. The shift could be in August, the $BTC.D top could be now, or the shift could be announced next FOMC meeting, and the $BTC.D top could be in only by year end. Fundamentals won't tell you, they just look pretty and make you sound like a genius who has told you so and they can make it look as if you were right, without really having made money of it. That is for the conclusion from the fundamentals. You know my technical stance, and that still holds. Hope this perspective is not too game changing, and I hope that means no more comments such as "we need QE to start alt season". If only it was that straightforward.